Facing Future Demands In 2005, I wrote a piece for ‘Mule News’ which pointed to a positive future for the Mule ewe. However, I also sounded a warning note because the UK sheep industry was on the brink of major changes. The Mule had to move with the times, taking more notice of changing customer requirements, if it was to maintain it’s position as the leading crossbred ewe on lowland farms. Looking back, the popularity of the Mule has been no mistake or chance event. It is built on the fact that the hybrid vigour of the crossbred provides positive improvement in vital traits such as prolificacy and mothering ability. First cross females are also relative easy to produce which allowed supplies of Mules to increase rapidly to meet demand. The UK market structure and a history of sheep movements from north to south, and west to east in the UK resulted in them moving freely to the lowlands. Indeed, much of the 40% increase in the UK lowland flock in the 80’s and 90’s was based on Mule ewes and for 25 years this has served us well. Of course there has to be a but. Just as demand can increase rapidly, so it can decline, and the signs are now clear that this is happening. Current economic pressures, in particular high labour costs and low market prices mean that raw hybrid vigour alone is no longer enough to secure the Mule’s position. There are those, of course, who will maintain that the weak market this autumn is a result of the FMD and BT outbreaks. While they certainly haven’t helped, the writing was on the wall long before the 3rd August. Large numbers of flocks in lowland areas, particularly those who employ shepherds have done their sums – and the figures just don’t stack up. Some have decided to quit sheep production; others are scaling back or changing their system. Those lamb producers who do stay the course are going to be far more aware of their costs of production and output indices. To be blunt, they will become far more interested in what a ewe will produce and at what cost; not what colour her face and legs are. This industry has got to drag itself away from the idea that it can be wedded to both aesthetics and commercial traits. It has to be purely profit driven if it is to survive, and this has to include all income streams (e.g. lamb sales, environmental monies etc.) The question for Mule breeders is ‘What will be needed in terms of a breeding ewe and what can we do to meet that requirement’? below are three areas for you to consider: Health status Disease costs money. Above all else customers want healthy sheep that will reliably perform for several seasons. The bottom line is that customers need to feel that the risk of bringing in disease with replacements is minimal otherwise they are increasingly opting to breed their own. Sheep scab, CODD and enzootic abortion are the main problems to be tackled, but there are others such as footrot, Johnes disease, orf etc. Genetics Hybrid vigour will continue to provide potential for lambing %, but selection for other important traits within sire and dam lines such as resistance to footrot and to worms will be considerations in future. Ease of lambing, lamb vigour etc. are also high on the list as the cost of lambing help is constantly trimmed back. This will mean collaboration with terminal sire breeders who are also having to face changing times, identifying those traits that when combined give the best finished lamb performance. Feedback Mule breeders need to forge closer links with their customers and learn what their customers wants i.e. what gives the best margins. In turn, they also have to work closer with Blue Faced Leicester and Swaledale / Scotch Blackface breeders. Above all, the customer needs to provide feedback and that feedback must be acted upon. Easier access to individual breeders and more direct communication is essential together with economic assessments of the various factors mentioned above. I think this can be done and with an organisation like NEMSA already in place you are halfway there. Notwithstanding the fantastic job the New Zealanders have done, I don’t feel the need to join what seems like a horde of people flocking there in the hope of getting a quick fix. The simple fact is that all they have done is to be pragmatic - start from the bottom, learn what the market wants and then work upwards to determine the best systems and genetics. We have a huge pool of genetic material in the UK, far bigger than in NZ – we just haven’t quite grasped how to apply it to best effect to meet the changes we face. Lesley Stubbings Independent sheep consultant